VO ROGUE PREVIEW (SAT, DEC 27)

A preview of the $150 000 Vo Rogue Plate (Listed) for Three-Year-Olds to be run over 1350m at Doomben on Saturday, December 27.

There are no surprises in the horse that is rated ‘the one to beat’, but there are enough positives lurking in the form-lines of some of Youthful Jack’s rivals to make it interesting race.

Remember when you place your bet, you choose your dividend, or range of dividends in the case of bets like the trifecta or quadrella. So, in the Vo Rogue, the first leg of the quadrella, do you take the standout and push for an upset in one of the other legs, or are you going to try to get the favourite beaten to boost your dividend, and then trust your luck in the later races?

That’s why they call it gambling.

The following form commentary is supplied in an effort to help you resolve that dilemma.

Vo Rogue Plate – 1350m

The one to beat: YOUTHFUL JACK.
Youthful Jack has won four-in-a-row in Queensland. He has won three out of three over this distance. He has proved he handles good to slow going. His trainer knows how to keep them primed. He couldn’t have a more experienced rider. A wide draw is always a disadvantage, but he has shown he has a turn of foot to be able to overturn that negative at whatever stage he chooses to put it to use.

Youthful Jack is a nine-time winner, but carries the same 56kg as his four fellow colts and geldings in the line-up (who are all only two-time winners). He gives the fillies 2kg at the weights.

Last time out, at the same weight conditions, he beat four of the runners he meets here in convincing fashion. Cat D’Antibes has to make up two lengths on Youthful Jack, Daddy’s Little Girl has to make up three lengths, Black Minx 3.80 lengths and Jazz Heart 4.60 lengths.

That is the minimum number of lengths the chasers will have to improve. The fact that Youthful Jack was not tested to the line last time left the impression he could have extended his advantage on that occasion if his rider had chosen to do so, which means that his rivals are likely to be placed under more pressure than the recent maths suggests.

The dangers: BLACK MINX, CAT D’ANTIBES, HIGH ROLL’N WOMAN.
Black Minx went into the San Domenico at Rosehill in August as a five-time winner from only six starts. He faded in disappointing fashion on that occasion, was sent out for a spell and then was comfortably beaten by Youthful Jack when resuming last time.

The important statistic to note is that Black Minx is unbeaten in two goes second-up. That, and the prowess the Lonhro filly showed prior to her two not-so-inspiring outings either side of being spelled make her well worth a second glance.

The lightly raced Cat D’Antibes, in real terms, has yet to put a foot wrong. No, he is not unbeaten, but he has yet to finish out of the first three places in five starts – two of which were in Group 2 company, a level to which none of his rivals here (including Youthful Jack) have yet managed to aspire to. The colt won on the only other occasion he started second-up (which he does here), so the warnings are there.

High Roll’N Woman can also stake her claim on solid evidence. Trainer Alan Bailey is as shrewd as they come when it comes to placing horses. The filly has performed with some credit in both starts since resuming (in her last race the saddle slipped back in the running) and she now drops a massive 4.5kg in the weights. Common-sense suggests she will have taken some improvement out of those runs and the combination of her stripping fitter and carrying a lighter weight should see her get closer to the action.

Upset possibility: DADDY’S LITTLE GIRL.
Her strike-rate does not inspire confidence but she has done just enough on occasions to make her the underdog contender.

Of the rest:
Express Air is another showing plenty of promise. Being slow away last time was a costly error, but she finished off very well, going past High Roll’N Woman (who also had problems with the saddle slipping) to beat that one home by 1.25 lengths. The weight turnaround is now 4kg in favour of the High Roll’N Woman, which should be a telling factor. She is also 3.5kg worse off with Jazz Heart who she beat home by 1.2 lengths in her penultimate start. While there is certain to be more improvement to come, these two weight turnaround factors underline the difficulty of Express Air’s task, which is why she is only rated in this category.

Jazz Heart has a good second-up record and she has yet to finish out of the first two in three goes at this track. He is clearly a useful sort, but he has yet to confirm he has the armoury to take on the best of the opposition here.

Yatala is going through the divisions well enough, but this does represent a substantial jump in class which is expected to find her out.

Adnocon flatters on occasions, but has been up a long time this prep and has not done enough to suggest she can have a major say here.

Navigation is another who looks some way short of the class required to claim victory in this line-up.

Further food for thought:

A bit to do from the draw: Youthful Jack, Adnocon, Yatala.
Unbeaten at distance: Youthful Jack, Express Air.
Other winners at distance: Yatala (2 out of 4)
First time this distance: Black Minx, High Roll’N Woman.
Unbeaten at track: Black Minx
Other winners at track: Youthful Jack, Cat D’Antibes, Jazz Heart
Jockey movement: Glen Colless rides for his stable (Alan Bailey) on High Roll’N Woman and so relinquishes the ride on Cat D’Antibes, who he partnered in the colt’s last four starts. Ric McMahon is now the rider for Cat D’Antibes. McMahon, who was not on any of the three Bryan Guy stable winners last weekend, will thus again be riding against the stable to which he is attached as Shane Scriven keeps the ride on the Guy trained Jazz Heart. With Jim Byrne still indisposed, Adam Best gets another big opportunity aboard Black Minx.
Beaten favourite last time: High Roll’N Woman, Express Air (both started equal favourites).
Good going: Will leave all runners on an equal footing.
Dead going: Youthful Jack is unbeaten on dead going. Yatala has not won in five starts on dead going.
Slow going: Youthful Jack, Jazz Heart and Black Minx are unbeaten on slow going.
Heavy going: No runner has confirmed form on this type of going.